Introduction. Air pollution is a major challenge impacting health in Saudi Arabia, particularly among the elderly. This study aimed to assess the impact of air pollution on daily mortality rates in the elderly population in Riyadh.

Methods and Materials. Data on air pollutants and climate variables were collected from air quality monitoring stations in Riyadh, while elderly mortality data was obtained from the General Authority for Statistics and the Ministry of Health. Statistical analysis was conducted using Poisson regression and generalized additive models to determine the relationship between pollution levels and elderly mortality rates.

Main Results. The findings revealed that while the overall mortality rate of the elderly is declining, the deaths related to air pollution are increasing. The pollutants that significantly impacted mortality were PM₁₀, SO₂, and CO₁. Among the climate variables, mean visibility (MVM), wind speed (MWS), temperature (MT), and wind direction degree (WDD) were key factors. The generalized additive models outperformed the Poisson regression model in predicting future mortality.

Conclusion. Air pollution in Riyadh is linked to an increased mortality rate among the elderly, with several pollutants surpassing globally recommended limits. The study highlights the need for stricter environmental controls and strategies to mitigate pollution levels in order to improve public health outcomes.

air pollutants, air pollution, elderly mortality, climate variables, Poisson regression model, generalized additive models, respiratory diseases, statistical methods.

Received: November 3, 2024; Revised: November 25, 2024; Accepted: January 8, 2025; Published: February 17, 2025 

How to cite this article: Hatem E. Semary, Analyzing and measuring the impact of pollution on the daily mortality rates of the elderly in the Saudi Arabia: a case study of the city of Riyadh, JP Journal of Biostatistics 25(1) (2025), 183-213. https://doi.org/10.17654/0973514325009

This Open Access Article is Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

References:
[1] Anon, Indicator Update: Air Quality (Particulate Matter - PM10), Ministry for the Environment, 2012. Retrieved December 11, 2023.
https://environment.govt.nz/publications/indicator-update-air-quality-particulate-matter-pm10/indicator-update-air-quality-particulate-matter-pm10/.
[2] Anon, Developing Countries and Development Co-Operation: What Is at Stake? OECD. Retrieved December 11, 2023.
https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/developing-countries-and-development-co-operation-what-is-at-stake-50e97915/.
[3] Anon, Update of WHO Air Quality Guidelines, Air Quality, Atmosphere and Health. Retrieved December 11, 2023.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11869-008-0008-9.
[4] Mohammed S. Alharbi, Abdullah K. Al Tuwayjiri and Mohammed J. Alanazi, Perception of online learning during COVID-19 among medical students in the Qassim region, Saudi Arabia, Bioscience Research 18(SI-1) (2021), 33-40.
[5] N. Al-Mutairi, F. Alrukaibi and P. Koushki, Measurements and model calibration of urban traffic noise pollution, American Journal of Environmental Sciences 5 (2009), 613-617.
[6] Addis Bikis, Urban air pollution and greenness in relation to public health, Journal of Environmental and Public Health 2023 (2023), 8516622.
doi: 10.1155/2023/8516622.
[7] Jessica Briffa, Emmanuel Sinagra and Renald Blundell, Heavy metal pollution in the environment and their toxicological effects on humans, Heliyon 6(9) (2020), e04691. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e04691.
[8] F. El-Zanaty and A. Way, Egypt Demographic and Health Survey 2005, Cairo: Ministry of Health and Population [Egypt], National Population Council, El-Zanaty and Associates, and ORC Macro, 2006.
[9] Sermin Genc, Zeynep Zadeoglulari, Stefan H. Fuss and Kursad Genc, The adverse effects of air pollution on the nervous system, Journal of Toxicology 2012 (2012), 782462. doi: 10.1155/2012/782462.
[10] Adel Ghorani-Azam, Bamdad Riahi-Zanjani and Mahdi Balali-Mood, Effects of air pollution on human health and practical measures for prevention in Iran, Journal of Research in Medical Sciences: The Official Journal of Isfahan University of Medical Sciences 21 (2016), 65. doi: 10.4103/1735-1995.189646.
[11] Mohy E. Hamed, Levels Trends and Differentials of Infant and Child Mortality in Egypt, 1988, pp. 171-97.
[12] Barbara Hoffmann, Hanna Boogaard, Audrey de Nazelle, Zorana J. Andersen, Michael Abramson, Michael Brauer, Bert Brunekreef, Francesco Forastiere, Wei Huang, Haidong Kan, Joel D. Kaufman, Klea Katsouyanni, Michal Krzyzanowski, Nino Kuenzli, Francine Laden, Mark Nieuwenhuijsen, Adetoun Mustapha, Pippa Powell, Mary Rice, Aina Roca-Barceló, Charlotte J. Roscoe, Agnes Soares, Kurt Straif and George Thurston, WHO air quality guidelines 2021-aiming for healthier air for all: a joint statement by medical, public health, scientific societies and patient representative organisations, International Journal of Public Health 66 (2021), 1604465. doi: 10.3389/ijph.2021.1604465.
[13] Rahul Kumar and Orlando De Jesus, Radiation Effects on the Fetus, in StatPearls, Treasure Island (FL): StatPearls Publishing, 2023.
[14] J. G. MacKinnon, A. A. Haug and L. Michelis, Numerical distribution functions of likelihood ratio tests for cointegration, Journal of Applied Econometrics 14 (1999), 563-577.
[15] Gurdeep Singh Malhi, Manpreet Kaur and Prashant Kaushik, Impact of climate change on agriculture and its mitigation strategies: A review, Sustainability 13(3) (2021), 1318. doi: 10.3390/su13031318.
[16] Ioannis Manisalidis, Elisavet Stavropoulou, Agathangelos Stavropoulos and Eugenia Bezirtzoglou, Environmental and health impacts of air pollution: A review, Frontiers in Public Health 8 (2020), 14. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2020.00014.
[17] Patrick Mikalef, John Krogstie, Ilias O. Pappas and Paul Pavlou, Exploring the relationship between big data analytics capability and competitive performance: the mediating roles of dynamic and operational capabilities, Information and Management 57(2) (2020), 103169. doi: 10.1016/j.im.2019.05.004.
[18] Yevgen Nazarenko, Devendra Pal and Parisa A. Ariya, Air quality standards for the concentration of particulate matter 2.5, global descriptive analysis, Bulletin of the World Health Organization 99(2) (2021), 125-137D.
doi: 10.2471/BLT.19.245704.
[19] Awais Piracha and Muhammad Tariq Chaudhary, Urban air pollution, urban heat island and human health: A review of the literature, Sustainability 14(15) (2022), 9234. doi: 10.3390/su14159234.
[20] Sarath Raju, Trishul Siddharthan and Meredith C. McCormack, Indoor air pollution and respiratory health, Clinics in Chest Medicine 41(4) (2020), 825-843. doi: 10.1016/j.ccm.2020.08.014.
[21] Hagen Scherb, Kristina Voigt and Ralf Kusmierz, Ionizing radiation and the human gender proportion at birth-a concise review of the literature and complementary analyses of historical and recent data, Early Human Development 91(12) (2015), 841-850. doi: 10.1016/j.earlhumdev.2015.10.012.
[22] Yuerong Tong, Jingyi Liu, Lina Yu, Liping Zhang, Linjun Sun, Weijun Li, Xin Ning, Jian Xu, Hong Qin and Qiang Cai, Technology investigation on time series classification and prediction, PeerJ Computer Science 8 (2022), e982.
doi: 10.7717/peerj-cs.982.
[23] World Health Organization (WHO), Air quality, energy and health, World Health Organization, Geneva, 2021.
[24] World Health Organization (WHO), Air Pollution, World Health Organization, Geneva, 2021.
[25] Katarzyna Zorena, Marta Jaskulak, Małgorzata Michalska, Małgorzata Mrugacz and Franck Vandenbulcke, Air pollution, oxidative stress, and the risk of development of type 1 diabetes, Antioxidants 11(10) (2022), 1908.
doi: 10.3390/antiox11101908.
[26] Ministry of Environment, Water, and Agriculture, Innovation in the Agriculture sector in Saudi Arabia, Technology Adoption Roadmap, 2022.
https://www.mewa.gov.sa/en/Ministry/Agencies/AgencyLivestock/Topics/PublishingImages/Pages/InnovationintheAgriclturesector/EN-MEWA-Agriculture_High-resolution%20for%20reading.pdf