Far East Journal of Theoretical Statistics
Volume 19, Issue 2, Pages 163 - 183
(July 2006)
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OBSERVATION AND MODEL ERROR EFFECTS ON PARAMETER ESTIMATES IN
SUSCEPTIBLE-INFECTED-RECOVERED EPIDEMIC MODEL
Tom L. Burr (U. S. A.) and Gerardo Chowell (U. S. A.)
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Abstract: Recently, confidence
intervals (CIs) associated with parameter estimates in the
susceptible-infected-recovered epidemiological model have been developed. When
model assumptions are met and the observation error is relatively small, these
CIs are relatively short. This work describes the behavior of CIs for parameters
as observation and/or equation or model error becomes larger and includes a
comparison of two estimation procedures. One procedure demonstrates significant
bias as observation error increases; the other procedure demonstrates
significant bias as model error increases. |
Keywords and phrases: epidemiology, susceptible-infected-recovered model uncertainty, parameter estimates, bias, mean squared error. |
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