Far East Journal of Theoretical Statistics
Volume 13, Issue 2, Pages 153 - 174
(July 2004)
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THE IMPACT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON BIOLOGICAL PARAMETER ESTIMATES
Tom Burr (U. S. A.) and James Gattiker (U. S. A.)
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Abstract: Classical and molecular epidemiology rely strongly on model-based estimates of biological parameters. For example, classical epidemiology models lead to estimates of the per-sex-act or per-dirty-needle-use probability of HIV infection. Molecular epidemiology models of the evolution of HIV at the DNA level lead to estimates of the time to the most recent common ancestor of present-day HIV cases, or of population dynamics such as the rate of growth of the epidemic. Because biological models play a central role in these and many other estimates, as well as in our overall understanding of disease etiology, it is important to understand the sensitivity of conclusions to model uncertainty. Here we provide a brief overview of the impact of model uncertainty, describe what is known about its impact in a few examples, and present a detailed example involving subdivided populations in the estimated per-dirty-needle use probability of HIV infection. |
Keywords and phrases: classical and molecular epidemiology, model uncertainty, parameter estimates. |
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