Surveys in Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences
Volume 1, Issue 1, Pages 35 - 52
(February 2012)
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A STOCHASTIC MODELING APPROACH TO MORTALITY TREND: A CASE STUDY
Amir T. Payandeh Najafabadi and Besharat Hosseinpour
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Abstract: Cairns et al. [4]’s introduced a logistic regression in terms of two random walk processes and to modeling mortality-rate as For future research, they suggested to use the ARIMA class of time series models as an alternative to the random walk model. This article utilizes their suggestion and considers and as two time series models in the above logistic regression model. Applications of the extended model explored for data collected, from 2004 to 2010, for post-age 60 males and females in Naghadeh, a town in the west Azarbaijan province in Iran, has been given. Using a developed an accuracy measure, this article concludes that the extended model provides more accurate prediction compares to the Cairns et al. [4]’s model. Several minor results have been given. |
Keywords and phrases: mortality, time series
models, stochastic models. |
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