SINGULAR VECTOR BAROTROPIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK

Thawatchai Sirikantisophon Thailand and Dusadee Sukawat (Thailand)

Received April 28, 2008

Abstract

Singular vector is a method to generate several initial conditions for weather prediction model from the same observation data. In this paper, a singular vector associated with a barotropic model is applied to tropical cyclone track forecasts by creating 50 initial conditions. These initial conditions are used to create 50 track predictions with slightly different initial conditions, called ensemble prediction system.

Keywords and phrases: singular vector, barotropic model, ensemble prediction system.