PREDICTABILITY IN SPECTRAL SHALLOW WATER MODEL

P. Sangapate (Thailand) and D. Sukawat (Thailand)

Received January 19, 2008

Abstract

Atmosphere is a dynamical system. An interesting feature of a dynamical system is predictability. Predictability is an ability to make an accurate forecast depends on degree of freedom and uncertainty in the initial condition. The shallow water model is often used to test numerical techniques for weather prediction. In this research, predictability of a spectral shallow water model is investigated by using the Lyapunov exponent, maximum Lyapunov exponent, and finite size Lyapunov exponent.

Keywords and phrases: spectral method, shallow water model, Lyapunov exponent, predictability time.