IS THE HIV EPIDEMIC IN THE UNITED STATES MUCH WORSE THAN WE THINK?

B. D. Aggarwala (Canada)

Abstract

We present a generalisation of a three stage HIV model discussed previously to include the spread of AIDS in a community. The forecasts of the model are compared with the actual number of AIDS people in Canada and the United States. The agreement is very good in Canada while in U.S., we come up with the surprising result that the number of HIV positive people there must be many times more than what is officially reported.

Keywords and phrases: mathematical modeling, incubation period, survival period, HIV/AIDS.